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The Year Ahead!

by Jim Stakem 2/15/2010

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It looks like we are going to have another difficult year in Real Estate. There are so many variables that could go wrong and any one of them will cause major problems for us. If we have more problems with the banks we will see a greater tightening of credit, making it harder to sell properties. The FED is backing away from purchasing mortgage backed securities and the housing credits will expire. As we begin to see the end of the “subprime” crises we are entering into the “prime” crisis, this consists of the ALT-A loans and smilar weird products that were used to purchase homes a couple of years ago. Over the next 18-24 months we can expect to see the “short sales” and “forclosures” move from the lower end of the market into the upper price ranges. If we can find a way to avoid all of these problems we may have a good year and I hope we can!

My Predictions:

The number of homes sold will decline to 5,400,000 nationally this year. We will decline about 10% locally.
Average and median sales prices will increase substantially.
Housing prices will decline about 5% with the upper price ranges declining more and the lower fairly stable.
Mortgage rates will increase as much as 1% and then decline to the 4.5-5% range.
Short sales and foreclosures will increase in the more expensive properties.
The number of agents will continue to decline.

 

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“Negative home equity will last for years
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